High Desert Population NOT on the Decline Says Recent Report

By Nikki Garrett Metzger

(Victor Valley) – There is good news that has come from a report released recently by The Bradco Companies. The report says that the population in the High Desert is actually not on the decline, as had been previously estimated by reports released by Neilsen/Claritas, one of the two large and well respected demographic providers.

Ronald J. Barbieri, Ph.D., CPA, Senior Vice President with The Bradco Companies and author of the report explained why this is important, “The US Census Bureau recently released their census counts by zip code. Until the census data came out there was the general opinion, based on figures from the Neilsen report, that in 2009 and 2010 the High Desert lost about 22,000 in population which is a 5% of the total population – that’s  big negative number.”

“But when I compared the Neilsen data to the latest census data that was released, it actually looks like the population growth probably has been flat over that two year period and I would not be surprised if the population remains flat for the next report put out by Neilsen in April.”

This is good news according to Barbieri because the new figures show that the population in the Victor Valley has stabilized and is poised for growth in the near future. “So if I’m investing in real estate that influences my decision, it gives me more confidence to invest. If I’m a business I may want to, instead of continuing to avoid an expansion, I may be willing to make some expansions.”

In his report, Barbieri says that the fact that there have been significant increases in taxable sales over the six quarters and home prices have not dropped substantially in the last 18 months, tend to collaborate a stable if not slightly expanding population scenario in the High Desert.

He continued, “The fundamental issue that we’ve been struggling with in the High Desert is…is the High Desert’s population going to continue to spiral down? Or has it bottomed out, stabilized, and is the platform being established for growing in the future? That’s the fundamental question that people have on their mind.  It impacts what decisions people make.”

Barbieri stated in his report, “According to the 2000 Census the population of the High Desert was 305,909. In the 2010 Census the population reached 441,337, which represents an increase of 135,468 or 44.3% over the decade. Nielsen/Claritas estimates that the population of the High Desert will grow by 55,000 during the five year period ending in December 31, 2015. While this would represent a growth rate of 13.1%; or 59% of the rate for the last decade, it is nevertheless significantly positive and substantially higher than the 5% growth rate expected for the U.S. over the half decade.”

You can read Barbieri’s report here: http://www.thehighdesertbradcoreport.com/articles/2012/02/the-high-deserts-population-decline-appears-to-be-substantially-overstated/

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *